Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.164980 0.195879 0.232289 0.278719 0.336862 0.407945 5.024706e-01
2025-08-10 0.123557 0.159649 0.206883 0.274434 0.370589 0.505758 7.161271e-01
2025-08-17 0.093506 0.129372 0.180544 0.261260 0.390004 0.596032 9.700838e-01
2025-08-24 0.076502 0.112744 0.168822 0.266095 0.440083 0.759153 1.446477e+00
2025-08-31 0.063479 0.098972 0.158075 0.270125 0.494081 0.965550 2.186046e+00
2025-09-07 0.053809 0.088327 0.149863 0.276863 0.560195 1.248244 3.429832e+00
2025-09-14 0.046122 0.079320 0.142325 0.283202 0.633117 1.616519 5.511141e+00
2025-09-21 0.038896 0.069548 0.130885 0.277905 0.679951 1.975625 8.396278e+00
2025-09-28 0.030731 0.056315 0.109266 0.242045 0.629174 2.000536 1.001517e+01
2025-10-05 0.027262 0.051750 0.104974 0.247629 0.705935 2.589965 1.714080e+01
2025-10-12 0.024843 0.048862 0.103727 0.261345 0.823371 3.556806 3.345350e+01
2025-10-19 0.022591 0.045875 0.101525 0.272054 0.944219 4.820804 6.784454e+01
2025-10-26 0.020357 0.042629 0.098262 0.280040 1.074216 6.585748 1.533179e+02
2025-11-02 0.017979 0.038586 0.091926 0.275658 1.151520 8.325323 3.273165e+02
2025-11-09 0.015682 0.034318 0.083945 0.262357 1.176813 9.831527 6.567424e+02
2025-11-16 0.014282 0.032030 0.081026 0.267170 1.317441 13.483392 2.205867e+03
2025-11-23 0.013044 0.029928 0.078137 0.271180 1.468062 18.595105 1.037042e+04
2025-11-30 0.012027 0.028218 0.076028 0.277918 1.658789 26.668395 1.111036e+05
2025-12-07 0.011121 0.026648 0.073969 0.284259 1.869504 38.777517 1.143521e+07
2025-12-14 0.010111 0.024609 0.069858 0.278915 1.979548 50.856067 NaN
2025-12-21 0.008701 0.021230 0.060474 0.242885 1.744646 46.415103 NaN
2025-12-28 0.008144 0.020231 0.059147 0.248480 1.957607 68.978133 NaN
2026-01-04 0.007759 0.019671 0.059244 0.262242 2.308205 117.586122 NaN